It’s always puzzle for those who’ve moved outside the ‘group think’ to understand why those on the inside can’t see what is staring them in the face.

Maybe it’s worth thinking about who premies are and what the online reactions actually represent in terms of numbers and what might actually be going on in the collective premie mind.

We can’t know for certain how many adherents Prem has left but I think we can make some reasonable estimates – albeit excluding the Indian followers and members of Indian diasporas in the UK, Canada etc.

In the early 2000s Prem’s non Indian supporters i.e those parting with cash and attending events, likely totalled around 5,000, that number certainly decreased as was evidenced by falling event attendance figures over the next ten years,  probably levelling to a hard core of around 3,000. Revelations on the forum, the various critical websites and Mike Finch’s book, undoubtedly had an impact and as people grew older a proportion naturally became less invested in a commitment that was unrewarding in older age.

The last ten years may have seen departures at a slower rate than the previous decade but age has an inevitable impact and “natural wastage” is starting to bite in a premie population whose median age is around 70. There’s probably a remaining old timer base of between 2,000 and 2,500, of these there’ll be 50 less each year, and that rate that will double every 5 > 7 years. One of the effects is that the female to male ratio will increase.

More significantly disability and ill health is becoming a major determinant of how premies interact with Prem’s organisations.  Many, though desperate to hang on to their faith, are simply too distant to engage other than via online, so we perhaps shouldn’t be surprised that there are those who are simply unable to face shutting off their only meaningful social lifeline, no matter how damning the evidence that Prem isn’t fit to hold the position in their lives that he does.